Pakistan, India, and Yemen top the list of countries at risk for new mass killing in 2021 or 2022, according to the Early Warning Project’s latest annual Statistical Risk Assessment.
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For the sixth year in a row, the Museum's Early Warning Project ran a comparison survey to solicit opinions on countries' relative risks of an onset of mass killing. These are the top 15 countries at risk for mass killing in 2019.
For the third year in a row, Sudan and Burma rank among the three countries at greatest risk of experiencing a new episode of state-led mass killing, according to the Early Warning Project’s annual rankings released today.
The Early Warning Project uses patterns from past instances of mass killing to forecast when new mass killing episodes might happen in the future. At the end of each year we update a list of countries experiencing state- and nonstate-led mass killing. The following report compiles our determinations for onsets of mass killing in 2016 and those cases that we can now judge have ended.
As one of the 20 countries most likely to experience the start of a new episode of state-led mass killing, according to our statistical risk assessments, Yemen demands our attention. In recent weeks, several countries have shut their embassies in Sanaa, and the UN has continued to warn of the potential for civil war.
We recently asked our Expert Opinion Pool, "Before 1 January 2015, will an episode of state-led mass killing occur in Yemen?"