Civilians Face Escalating Mass Atrocity Risks in Burma as Elections Approach

Burma’s military, which has committed mass atrocities – including the Rohingya genocide – is planning elections beginning on December 28, 2025. An attempt to cement military rule and garner legitimacy, the elections bring new threats to civilians who have already suffered widespread violence at the hands of the military. 

Since February 1, 2021, when Burma’s military took power in a coup, more than 16,000 people have been killed in attacks targeting civilians, the vast majority of which were committed by the military. The coup ended a period of nominally civilian rule and placed perpetrators of mass atrocities at the highest levels of government. In the following weeks, millions joined anti-coup demonstrations throughout the country. The military began a brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protestors and political opposition, committing mass killings, widespread arbitrary detentions, and torture. Since the coup, Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), some of which have fought the military for decades, and groups formed after the coup, such as People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), have battled the military across the country. 

For years, the military has tried, and largely failed, to secure control of the country. The people of Burma, who by and large reject military rule as illegitimate, have continued to resist through peaceful protest, civil disobedience, and armed resistance. Since October 2023, armed opposition groups have gained control of considerable swaths of territory. In 2024, the military controlled only an estimated 21 percent of the country. The military has more recently been on the offensive, conducting relentless airstrikes and gaining territory from opposition groups. Still, analysts believe the military has full territorial control of less than half of the country. 

Against this backdrop of growing attacks on civilians, Burma’s military announced that phased elections will begin on December 28, 2025. Elections will involve 57 parties, though no credible opposition parties are participating, including the National League for Democracy (NLD), Aung San Suu Kyi’s party. The NLD was one of dozens of political parties that refused to re-register under a new, restrictive election law in 2023 and were therefore ordered to dissolve. The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), backed by the military, is running more than 1,000 candidates and is expected to win the majority of seats. Elections will not be held in one in seven constituencies due to the military’s lack of territorial control. The military’s increasing use of surveillance technology could enable the regime to monitor whether, and for whom, people are voting.  

The military presents the elections as a path toward reconciliation, but many experts, both within Burma and internationally, reject this claim and the process as a sham designed by the military to legitimize their rule. Several human rights organizations have stated that they do not expect the elections to be free, fair, or inclusive. The military, which has been isolated from the international community since the coup, is attempting to use elections as a bid for international legitimacy. It is unlikely that most Western governments will accept the election results, but others, including China, India, and Russia, have supported the process. China, in particular, has become increasingly supportive of the military regime, providing weapons and technology, and pressuring opposition groups into ceasefire agreements. 

Mass Atrocity Risks to Civilians Around the Election Process 

In the context of the ongoing conflict, severely limited civic space, and targeted attacks on civilians, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said that “to hold elections under these circumstances is unfathomable.”

Many civilians are at risk of attacks because of the military’s attempt to control more territory and clear the way for elections to take place over a broader area. The military has increased operations in an attempt to retake territory before the elections, conducting intense, relentless airstrikes in opposition-controlled territory. Military attacks have targeted civilians, striking schools and gatherings. At least 25 people were killed in the Sagaing Region when a military paraglider targeted a candlelight vigil protesting forced conscription and the elections during the full moon festival. The military pushed to retake Pakokku District, where they had previously acknowledged conditions would not allow for voting. Such attacks may continue throughout the election period, placing civilians at extreme risk. This is particularly the case in opposition-controlled areas, where the military likely will continue to target civilians and their infrastructure and conduct indiscriminate aerial attacks.

Electoral violence could also echo coercion seen during the 2024 census. During the census collection, civilians were pressured, often at gunpoint, to provide data, and some opposition groups disrupted the process, including through attacks on census workers. Such violence could repeat, and could be heightened given the increased stakes of an election. Experts anticipate military coercion of civilians and that opposition groups, some of whom have indicated plans to block polls and undermine the election, may be willing to use violence and will view polling stations as legitimate targets. Military or opposition armed groups’ violence around the voting process could target civilians based on their perceived loyalties. 

When elections conclude, civilians will continue to face heightened mass atrocity risks. Treating the election results as a mandate cementing its rule, the military could increase attacks in opposition areas. It could also use surveillance tools to diminish perceived threats against its rule, including through sustaining or increasing attacks on journalists and civil society organizations, and potentially targeting and arresting those who boycotted the elections. 

How Can the International Community Respond?

• Focus on protecting civilians at risk of immediate harm: The international community should prioritize protecting civilians, including by facilitating early warning and response efforts, and by supporting those seeking safety. Protection needs may become even more serious around the elections.

• Refuse normalization: These elections are the military’s bid to garner legitimacy while it commits mass atrocities against civilians in Burma. The international community, including ASEAN and Western countries, should keep focused on mass atrocities against civilians and not use the election as cover for a softer approach toward the military. 

• Coordinate efforts to limit the capacity of the military: Especially around the elections, governments should coordinate steps to keep the military financially and politically isolated, so that it has reduced means and less diplomatic cover to conduct mass atrocities against civilians.