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Announcements and Recent Analysis

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  • Democratic Republic of Congo: Rising Concern about the Banyamulenge’s Situation

    In this interview, Delphin Rukumbuzi Ntanyoma, a PhD candidate and expert on Eastern Congo, discusses ongoing violence and risk of future mass atrocities against the Banyamulenge ethnic group in the Democratic Republic of Congo. He describes conflict drivers, high-risk areas meriting additional attention, and concludes with recommendations for policymakers focused on atrocity prevention.

  • DRC, Afghanistan, and Egypt at Highest Risk for Mass Killing

    The Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan, and Egypt top the list of countries most likely to experience a new mass killing in 2018 or 2019, according to a new forecast released by the Museum's Early Warning Project. The report’s release coincided with the launch of the project’s new website, including interactive data tools, accessible reports, and data files.

  • Atrocity Risk in Congo Increases as Elections Near

    The Early Warning Project’s multi-method approach suggests that there is an urgent need to analyze and respond to risks of future mass atrocities in the DRC. In particular, Congo-watchers should think critically about how the upcoming election, and its outcome, might exacerbate atrocity risks throughout the country.

  • State of the World: Mass Killing in 2016

    The Early Warning Project uses patterns from past instances of mass killing to forecast when new mass killing episodes might happen in the future. At the end of each year we update a list of countries experiencing state- and nonstate-led mass killing. The following report compiles our determinations for onsets of mass killing in 2016 and those cases that we can now judge have ended.

  • Diagnosing Prospects for Peace in Eastern DRC

    We recently added the following question to our opinion pool: Before January 1, 2015, will the leader of another major militia group in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo surrender?* This might seem like an odd topic for a system designed to assess risks of future mass atrocities. As this question implies, however, we also plan to use the system from time to time to assess prospects for the cessation or reduction of atrocities in cases where they are already happening. Our open question on the possibility of a peace deal this year in Colombia is another example.

  • ICC Finds Congolese Warlord Thomas Lubanga Guilty of War Crimes

    Yesterday, March 14, the International Criminal Court (ICC) found Thomas Lubanga Dyilo guilty of recruiting and using child soldiers between 2002 and 2003 during the war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Lubanga was convicted of “conscripting and enlisting children under the age of 15 and using them to participate actively in hostilities.” This landmark decision is the ICC’s first verdict since its creation a decade ago.