For the sixth year in a row, the Early Warning Project ran a comparison survey in December to solicit opinions on countries' relative risks of an onset of mass killing. According to participants, who voted on a series of head-to-head match-ups, the top 15 countries at risk for mass killing in 2019 are:
Yemen Somalia* Iraq* Democratic Republic of Congo* South Sudan* Syria* Mali Central African Republic* Afghanistan* Sudan* Mozambique Egypt Chad Nigeria* Pakistan*
Countries in bold with an asterisk had ongoing episodes of mass killing at the end of 2017 (EWP staff are currently compiling data on 2018 onsets).
The results are mapped above. The darker the shade of red, the greater the risk that a new episode of mass killing will begin in 2019 (according to our survey’s respondents).