Bangladesh emerged as a secular democracy in 1971 after a bloody independence war from Pakistan that was marked by mass killings by the Pakistani army and its collaborators. This history of mass killings continue to influence political dynamics today, which are becoming increasingly polarized between the two main political parties: the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.
In December 2018 Bangladesh held national elections. Though there were some violent incidents, the potential mass atrocity scenarios that we warned about in our November 2017 report did not come to pass.
Our November 2017 report outlined three scenarios in which various actors may have been motivated to commit mass killings shortly after the elections in December 2018.Report PDF
Our quantitative assessment, from the Early Warning Project, estimates the risk of a new mass killing in Bangladesh.
Hundreds of thousands of Rohingya have fled from Burma to Bangladesh since August 2017, where they live in overcrowded camps.