Mozambique has a history of mass atrocities, most notably during its civil war, which killed roughly one million people. Decades later, the country again faces significant violence and political unrest: since 2017, an Islamic State-linked insurgency in northern Mozambique, fueled by local grievances, has killed thousands and displaced more than a million people. More recently, rising public anger over corruption, unemployment, and poor governance erupted into widespread protests and violence following the 2024 presidential elections. Together, these overlapping crises have trapped the country in a dangerous cycle of instability, raising concerns about Mozambique’s future.
Our October 2026 report highlights the importance of early warning to prevent violence against civilians in Mozambique over the next few years. We identify high-risk scenarios and potential triggers and offer recommendations for proactive intervention by the Mozambican government, civil society, and international partners.
Mozambique has ranked consistently as a high-risk country for mass killing according to our Early Warning Project, with escalating violence in the country’s north due to an extremist insurgency. This May 2021 brief outlines potential perpetrators, describes mass atrocity risk factors present and plausible worst-case scenarios, and identifies resiliencies and recommendations for preventive actions.