Chad’s risk increased significantly in this year’s Early Warning Project Statistical Risk Assessment, from 23rd in 2020–21 to tenth in 2021–22. In this interview, researcher and journalist Jérôme Tubiana discusses the risks for future violence against civilians in Chad. He describes potential conflict scenarios, drivers, dynamics, and recommendations for the international community.
After a year of mass atrocities against Tigrayan and other ethnic groups in Ethiopia, the immediate risk facing civilians is expanding to new areas. Famine, crimes against humanity and war crimes by multiple armed actors are placing all civilians at risk with no end in sight.
A German court handed down the first conviction for genocide for an ISIL member’s crimes against Iraq’s Yezidi community.
To help the Simon-Skjodt Center’s Early Warning Project forecast atrocity risk in 2022 and learn more about the “wisdom of the crowd,” please participate in our annual comparison survey.
Pakistan, India, and Yemen top the list of countries at risk for new mass killing in 2021 or 2022, according to the Early Warning Project’s latest annual Statistical Risk Assessment.
The Rohingya remain at heightened risk of genocide and mass atrocities. Other vulnerable groups include ethnic and religious minorities in areas where armed groups are fighting the Tatmadaw. In particular, an increased military offensive in Chin State in northwestern Burma is raising red flags of potential mass atrocities.
While the Taliban takeover threatens civilians across Afghanistan, the country’s women and girls and Hazara populations are at particular risk of mass atrocities. Even prior to the Taliban’s seizing control of the country, the Early Warning Project’s Statistical Risk Assessment ranked Afghanistan second in the world for the risk of a new onset of mass killing of civilians in 2020-21.
The ongoing conflict between farming and herding populations in Nigeria exemplifies how climate change can intensify conflict between communities and place certain populations at increased risk of mass atrocities. Nigeria is pioneering a new initiative to change how it raises animals for food and other products. If successful, this system could serve as a model for other countries also threatened by farmer-herder violence related to climate change.
On the fourth anniversary of the Burmese military’s genocidal attacks on the Rohingya population we urge the world not to forget the victims and survivors.
A recent electoral crisis in the Central African Republic drew renewed attention to mass atrocity risks civilian populations have faced since late 2012. In the wake of the December 2020 election, opposition groups disputed the election results and armed rebels mounted coordinated attacks against civilians that continue today. The country now faces what one top United Nations official calls an “unprecedented humanitarian crisis.”
Find information on historical cases of genocide and other atrocities.
