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Survey: Central African Republic Tops List of Countries Most Likely to See State-led Mass Killing

Mapped results of December 2016 wiki survey. The darker the shade of gray, the greater the risk that a new episode of state-led mass killing will begin in 2017 (according to our survey’s respondents).

The Central African Republic (CAR) is the country most likely to see an onset of state-led mass killing in 2017, according to participants in the Early Warning Project’s most recent public wiki survey. The pairwise wiki survey is a “wisdom of the crowds” method in which participants are asked to select which country has a higher risk of a new episode of state-led mass killing when presented a series of head-to-head match-ups. The survey ran in December 2016 and included 163 countries. Following CAR at the top of the list are South Sudan, Libya, Syria, and Sudan.

To read the report, visit the Early Warning Project’s blog.

Designed by the Museum and Dartmouth College, the Early Warning Project measures, tracks, and analyzes known risk factors that could lead to a future instance of mass atrocities. Our Statistical Risk Assessment calculates a nation’s predilection to commit atrocities based on current measures of economic and political instability as well as forecasts of future coup attempts and civil wars. Our Opinion Pool is designed to complement the Statistical Risk Assessment with public forecasting of mass atrocity risk. The results from our annual wiki survey will inform the selection of cases and countries we track in real time with our Opinion Pool throughout 2017.