How the Aftermath of Burma’s Earthquake May Impact Mass Atrocities

Introduction

On March 28, 2025, Burma was struck by a 7.7 magnitude earthquake that killed thousands and severely damaged infrastructure. Initial reports estimate that more than 17 million people were affected. Areas close to the epicenter, such as the cities of Mandalay and Sagaing, were the most impacted. The humanitarian implications are massive for a country that is already in crisis and has endured years of civil war. The earthquake caused mass displacement and civilians are in urgent need of food, drinking water, healthcare, and shelter. Humanitarian access is a significant challenge, as many communities are isolated due to infrastructure damage, continued conflict, and obstruction by the de facto government, the military-run State Administrative Council (SAC). 

The earthquake struck at a time when civilians in Burma were already suffering. Before the earthquake, the US suspension of foreign aid and subsequent cuts to programming in Burma led to severe reductions in the availability of humanitarian aid and healthcare infrastructure throughout the country and caused many civil society organizations to suspend their activities. The United States dismantled its team that would otherwise have responded in the earthquake’s aftermath, resulting in an aid gap that other nations, including China, Russia, and India, are attempting to fill. 

Civilians have borne the brunt of conflict that has persisted in Burma for decades, and which has spread across the country since the 2021 coup. For years, the military has employed collective punishment, deliberately attacking civilians and restricting humanitarian access to opposition areas. During previous natural disasters, the military prioritized securing its authority over rescuing civilians. This tendency has resurfaced in the aftermath of the earthquake as the military continues to conduct airstrikes on civilian targets, compounding the crisis. 

Both armed conflict and natural disasters can create an environment where mass atrocity crimes are more likely. Following natural disasters, governments may suspend the rule of law and introduce new security measures to justify violence against civilian communities, particularly those that were being targeted before the disaster occurred. Experts, including those at the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar, the Stimson Center, and the International Crisis Group, have begun to analyze the potential impacts the latest disaster will have on current conflict dynamics. This type of analysis is important for understanding risks of mass atrocities against civilians specifically, as systematic attacks on civilians are an ever-present feature of the SAC’s military campaigns. While much remains unclear, the earthquake compounds several disturbing trends that should be monitored over time, including obstruction of aid, tightening of the information environment, and restrictions on movement.

What to Watch

Shrinking information space

Efforts to restrict or ban communication methods and prevent international media access can be indicators of mass atrocity risk. Historically, the military has employed heavy censorship, punishing perceived online criticism and shutting down telecommunication and internet services to isolate people in Burma from each other and the world. Existing internet restrictions and new infrastructure damage have made it more challenging for outside observers to understand the full effects of the earthquake.

In the wake of the earthquake, the SAC has tightened the information space even further. The SAC has denied foreign journalists visas and suspended all tourist visas, citing an inability to host outsiders. The restrictions will impede independent reporting on the extent of damage and response efforts, as well as on the conflict. The reduced information coming out of conflict areas can isolate civilians, inhibit information sharing, hamper documentation efforts, and risks emboldening perpetrators to commit mass atrocities. International actors can invest in their own information-gathering mechanisms and can support local journalists and civil society organizations to ensure accessible information and reliable monitoring of mass atrocities. 

Restriction of aid

The military has repeatedly blocked international humanitarian aid in the wake of natural disasters and has seized on opportunities to advance its political and security goals amid devastation. Since the 2021 coup, the SAC has imposed severe restrictions on civil society organizations' operations and threatened and harassed their workers. Areas under SAC control were among the most affected by the earthquake and the military is overseeing humanitarian assistance and aid distribution. The SAC has announced that foreign relief teams must cooperate with authorities to obtain prior authorization and are not permitted to operate independently, which may raise concerns given the SAC’s unwillingness to appropriately administer to the needs of civilians. In the days after the earthquake, the SAC blocked humanitarian aid and rescue operations from accessing numerous areas throughout the country, endangering civilians. Imposing strict restrictions on or obstructing the movement of humanitarian operations can increase the risk of mass atrocity to civilians. 

Sagaing and Mandalay, two of the areas most impacted by the earthquake, have been targeted with airstrikes repeatedly over the last several months as the military has attempted to prevent opposition forces from advancing further into the region. Despite the devastation caused by the earthquake, the military has continued to carry out these attacks and has obstructed the delivery of aid to Sagaing. With extensive control over the distribution of life-saving aid, the SAC is able to withhold aid as a form of collective punishment against communities it perceives as supporting opposition forces. Increased coordination amongst international governments could reduce the SAC’s ability to monopolize and manipulate aid delivery.

Continued restrictions on movement

Since 2021, freedom of movement has been restricted, particularly in SAC-controlled areas. Civilians, including members of ethnic minority groups, report challenges passing through SAC checkpoints. Policies that restrict the free movement of civilians can isolate communities and exacerbate the harm they may experience if they can’t move to safety or find assistance. Damage to infrastructure caused by the earthquake may further isolate communities, inhibiting civilians' ability to escape violence and hampering independent monitoring efforts. 

Conclusion 

The March 2025 earthquake has heightened the already high risk of mass atrocities against civilians in Burma. The SAC has used the aftermath of the disaster to reassert control and further endanger civilians. Policy makers should monitor trends in SAC restrictions on movement and aid, as well as the tightening of the information and civic space, and ensure that life-saving humanitarian assistance reaches communities in need.  

Denise-Nicole Stone is the policy assistant for the Simon-Skjodt Center.