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The Early Warning Project partners with Good Judgment Inc. to conduct the public opinion pool.
The Early Warning Project partners with Good Judgment Inc. to conduct the public opinion pool.

The Early Warning Project invites all followers of the Simon-Skjodt Center’s work to participate in our public opinion pool to forecast mass killing. The pool is hosted by Good Judgment Inc, and this “wisdom of the crowds” approach enables us to provide real-time assessments of the risk of mass killing in various countries to complement our annual Statistical Risk Assessment.

We're asking you to assess the likelihood of mass killing in the following countries:

  • Afghanistan
  • Bangladesh
  • Burma/Myanmar
  • Burundi
  • Central African Republic
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Ethiopia
  • Mali
  • Nigeria
  • Pakistan
  • The Philippines
  • Sudan
  • Turkey
  • Yemen
  • Zimbabwe

These countries were determined to be high risk in our Statistical Risk Assessment and through additional research. Followers of these countries can track the results in real time on Good Judgment’s website.

Of course not everyone is an expert on each country, but from prior research we know that formal markers of expertise (e.g., academic degrees and professional titles) are not very reliable predictors of forecasting skill, so we open our pool to the public, where the larger and more diverse the set of participants we have, the more accurate the forecasts should be.

The pool is an important component of the Early Warning Project, as it allows forecasters to update their beliefs about risks of mass atrocities at any time, as they read, see, or hear new information that they believe to be pertinent. The opinion pool allows people to record changes in their beliefs whenever they happen and even to record and share with other participants information about why their beliefs changed.

Please go here to sign up to be in our pool of forecasters. Once you join the name of our challenge is "Early Warning Project (2017-2018)."

Thank you for joining us in our effort to more accurately forecast mass killing.

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