Even as Sudan prepares for two major political deadlines — national elections (April 2010) and a referendum on southern independence (2011) — cracks are showing in the national and regional political systems that raise deep concerns for the country’s future.

The results of the nation-wide census in Sudan were released on May 21 and immediately the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) protested the final figures. According to the official results, the Sudanese population now stands at 39,154,490 with 8,260,490 people (or 21%) living in the south. The GOSS countered by asserting that southerners equal a third of the total population. Other concerns were raised about the count of displaced Sudanese living in the North. Some estimates put this number as high as 3.9 million, although the census recorded 518,000. In the wake of the disputed results, Sudan announced it was delaying its national elections by two months to April 2010.

Seventeen northern Sudanese opposition groups announced an alliance in advance of the elections and called for the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) to step down. The U.S. is also stepping up its engagement. U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and Special Envoy for Sudan General Scott Gration hosted a conference on June 23rd with delegations from Sudan’s ruling NCP and SPLM to discuss the progress of the CPA.

Recent violence and ongoing governance issues are also raising concerns about the government of Southern Sudan. Sima Samar, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights in Sudan, said she was gravely concerned by the insecurity and violence that has resulted in an estimated 900 deaths and 20,000 people displaced over the past three months in southern Sudan.

In Sudan’s western region of Darfur, ongoing conflict and displacement continue to pose a threat to civilian lives.  On July 3, African Union leaders agreed to shield Sudanese President Bashir from an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court.