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Sudan: January 12, 2011

As South Sudan Votes, Violence Troubles Border Region

With great euphoria at this long-awaited moment, South Sudanese began voting on Sunday in a referendum on independence from the North. Over the next week, more than three million people are expected to go to the polls, and, so far, voting in the South has been peaceful and smooth. One man cycled for two days to cast his vote in Rumbek, the capital of Lakes state, where herders sometimes move long distances with their animals.  “Some of those traveling from the cattle camps had arranged for relatives to look after their cattle before rushing back and swapping so that others could travel to vote,” reports the BBC.

But even as the referendum continues, outbreaks of violence have heightened tensions along the fragile border region.  Just as the voting began, skirmishes in Abyei reportedly involving members of the nomadic Misseriya tribe killed more than 40 people. Already on edge, Abyei was meant to hold a separate referendum on its future status as a part of the North or South, but it was postponed indefinitely over unresolved questions of eligibility.

On the second day of the referendum, heavily armed Misseriya tribesmen reportedly attacked a convoy of southern Sudanese travelling south to vote in the referendum. Ten people were killed and 18 were injured, according to the southern Sudanese Minister for Internal Affairs, who said that the convoy of buses and trailers was forced to turn back. The attack occurred in Southern Kordofan, a northern state, and the Misseriya are aligned with the government in Khartoum.

As the Museum statement urged prior to the referendum, leaders must call for calm in order to help prevent further violence.

Sudan: January 6, 2011

Museum Issues Press Release on South Sudan Referendum

On January 5th, the Museum issued a press release urging leaders in Sudan’s North and South to call for calm in advance of South Sudan’s referendum.

On Sunday, January 9, 2011, southern Sudan will vote on a referendum for its independence from northern Sudan. A politically historic moment, the vote to partition Sudan could trigger violence, and the danger to civilians will remain following the referendum.

The vote marks the culmination of a peace agreement that ended a devastating 20-year civil war between the North and South, which resulted in the death of at least 2 million people and displaced 4 million others. With a history of group-targeted violence, Sudan has continued to display some of the warning signs of mass atrocities against civilians, including a demonstrated willingness to manipulate ethnic and economic tensions and employ brutal tactics. The referendum is also being held in the shadow of ongoing violence in Darfur.

“After decades of violence and protracted peace negotiations, this opportunity for southern Sudan raises new hopes for the region, as well as new risks,” said Mike Abramowitz, director of the Committee on Conscience, the Museum’s genocide prevention program. “Leaders in both northern and southern Sudan, having committed themselves to allowing the referendum to occur, should now abide by that promise by calling for calm and respecting the results of the vote.”

Until results are announced, a period of uncertainly will likely follow the vote, and, secession, if that is the result, will not officially occur for six months. During this time, sustained international engagement will be necessary to ensure that all parties in both the North and South refrain from violence and work as neighbors toward building stability and peace.

“It is essential for the international community, and particularly the United States, to maintain focus and vigilance not only in these immediate days surrounding the vote, but over the coming months,” Abramowitz continued.

Read the full press release and access more resources about the referendum, including high resolution photographs available for download.

Sudan: December 14, 2010

Sudan at the Crossroads

In Fall 2010, Michael Abramowitz and Andrew S. Natsios, former U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, traveled on a bearing witness trip to South Sudan, which is poised to vote on January 9, 2011 on a referendum for independence. Learn more about the challenges ahead for the region by reading the trip’s report, which covers a wide range of dynamics at play in the lead-up to and following the referendum, from the politics of oil revenues to an assessment of the military situation and the danger posed by freelance actors.

View photographs and press coverage from the trip and watch a video that reveals how lives in South Sudan have been touched by the legacy of war.

DR Congo: December 2, 2010

Museum Joins with Ben Affleck on the Congo

In an event last night by the Museum, Ben Affleck and Senator John Kerry came together with a panel of experts to speak about policy options for resolving the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Founder of the Eastern Congo Initiative, a U.S. based advocacy and grant-making group, Ben Affleck spoke about the need to unite peacemaking efforts in eastern Congo and to do so now, before Congolese elections in 2011 raise additional new challenges.

“Every voice that sends a message of concern helps to awaken those who need to take action,” said Ambassador Johnnie Carson, the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, echoing Affleck’s call. Describing the DRC as a nation that defies easy solutions, Carson noted that the fact that Congo is even holding elections in 2011 – previously in doubt — should be welcomed as sign of progress.  In response, independent analyst Anthony Gambino expressed concern that the international community is nowhere near where it should be in preparing to support the elections and that the previous poll, in 2006, only took place because of massive international support. Gambino emphasized that for elections in 2011 to be considered minimally successful, they must be at least as free, fair, and peaceful as those in 2006.

Joining the Ambassador on the panel, Mvemba Dizolele, an expert policy analyst, reflected on the danger of focusing exclusively on the DRC’s eastern region. “When we miss the story that is happening in 80% of the country, then we miss the picture,” Dizolele said.  “Because what’s happening in the east is happening exactly because of what is not happening in the rest of the country.”  Widening the lens of analysis, Dizolele described the failures of the Congolese government in Kinshasa to meet the needs of its entire population, which suffers from insecurity and poverty, regardless of region.

Throughout the discussion, attention was repeatedly drawn to the lawless and predatory behavior of the Congolese military, the FARDC, which has incorporated rebel commanders and soldiers into its ranks in an effort to satisfy peace deals. Ostensibly tasked with safeguarding the Congolese people, the FARDC has been accused of committing widespread atrocities and establishing criminal networks in eastern Congo. Noting the tragic contradiction, a newly published UN report by the Group of Experts on the DRC states, “President Joseph Kabila has publicly recognized that the involvement of criminal networks within the Forces armées de la République démocratique du Congo (FARDC) in the illegal exploitation of natural resources has created a conflict of interest with the army’s constitutional security mandate.”

Although pressing, security reform is only one of the many challenges facing the Congolese. Recent high-profile attempts by the international community and the FARDC to combat eastern Congo’s dominate rebel force, the FDLR, have fallen short of expectations and, in some cases, resulted in reprisal attacks on civilians. The UN report explains:

The arrests in Europe of senior political leaders of the Forces démocratiques de liberation du Rwanda (FDLR) has signaled stronger international resolve to bring to justice those who command and represent the group from afar. Yet the Group [of Experts] has found that impact of those arrests on the morale of combatants and their military leaders has been more limited than expected. FDLR increasingly works with other armed groups, including former enemies, to attack and loot both civilian and military targets.

Despite the scale and complexity of the issues in DRC, neither the UN report nor the panelists suggested the situation was hopeless, a point emphasized in the opening remarks by Museum director Sara Bloomfield, “This is not a crisis already resigned to history, but an ongoing and perilous reality. For some there is the perception that this complicated issue is unsolvable, but with so many civilians still so painfully vulnerable, we must continue to raise awareness of the crisis and encourage those who seek ways to resolve it.”

Bosnia: October 18, 2010

More of the Same in Bosnia?

On October 3rd, Bosnian citizens voted in a bewildering array of elections at the federal and entity level (Republika Srpska and the Bosniak-Croat Federation) that reflected the nation’s troubling, deep divisions. Voters from the Bosniak-Croat Federation largely turned to moderate politicians, while Bosnian Serbs re-elected their nationalist party, which continues to call openly for secession.

Next month marks the 15th anniversary of the end of the Bosnian war, and the nation remains trapped by its convoluted and unwieldy government and the hyper-nationalist politicians in Republika Srpska (RS), who actively work towards the dissolution of the nation. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, former RS prime minister and its newly elected president, Milorad Dodik shared “his opinion that in 15 years the state of Bosnia-Hercegovina will no longer exist.”

Dysfunction, corruption, and patronage run deeply through the administration of both of Bosnia’s entities. A new report from the International Crisis Group (ICG) describes the Bosniak-Croat Federation as “a dense bureaucracy, whose various parts function in competition or open conflict with one another, and a suffocating thicket of confusing and often contradictory legislation and regulation. Federation administrative bloat and disorder make Bosnia’s larger entity one of Europe’s worst places to do business and choke its people’s economic potential.” Bosnia, which hopes for EU membership, faces an economic crisis with 40% unemployment and stagnant growth.

But alongside the gloomy assessment, the ICG report shares a piece of good news:

A March 2010 survey found that while Bosnian Serbs, Croats and Bosniaks do not share a common vision of the state’s future constitutional arrangement, they also do not object to close relationships with each other and that, “primarily different political interests, rather than ethnic hatred, lie behind differences in visions of a common state.” Reported ethnic incidents remain relatively scarce, though they increased in 2008 and 2009.

DR Congo; Rwanda: October 1, 2010

Museum Reacts to New UN Report on Congo

The U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum today reacted to the new United Nations report on human rights violations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).  Published by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, the report outlines the most serious violations of human rights and international humanitarian law in the DRC between 1993 and 2003 and offers a range of transitional justice options to deal with the legacy of the crimes.

“The scale, scope and detail of the crimes are too serious to be ignored,” said Michael Abramowitz, Director of the Committee on Conscience, the Museum’s genocide prevention program. “This report offers a shocking picture of violence directed against civilians in the Congo by multiple perpetrators over more than a decade. The allegations of serious violations of international humanitarian law should be treated with utmost gravity in the interests of truth-telling, combating impunity, and achieving justice for victims.”

The report published today analyses four major periods of violence in the DRC: the waning years of the Mobutu Sese Seko regime (1993 - 1996), the war to overthrow Mobutu (1996-1998), the second war (1998 - 2001), and the period of transition (2001 - 2003). It also documents violence against women and children and the impact of resource exploitation on the conflict.

The report charges that attacks carried out in 1996 and 1997 by the Rwandan army and their rebel allies against Hutu civilians in the DRC may constitute genocide, ultimately deferring judgment on this question to a competent legal tribunal. It also documents crimes allegedly committed by the later-deposed Zairean government of Mobutu Sese Seko, other national militaries and militias, including Ugandan, Burundian, and Congolese rebels. The report provides guidance for the Congolese and international authorities on how to prosecute perpetrators and address victims’ rights.

“Nothing in this report or these charges diminishes the facts of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, where at least 500,000 Rwandan Tutsi were murdered by a Hutu-extremist government in only three months,” said Abramowitz. “If anything, the report underscores the long-lasting, regional consequences of genocide and the importance of prevention efforts.”

Read the full press release, learn more about the report, and listen to UN expert Jason Stearns discuss a draft of the report, which was leaked in September.

Sudan: September 27, 2010

A Decision for Sudan’s South Has Nationwide Implications

In news coverage of the upcoming referendum on southern Sudan’s independence, there has been little discussion about the potential ramifications of this defining political moment for northern Sudan.

Just as the south will have to construct its own nation, northern Sudan will have to grapple with a new social, political, and economic reality. At the very least, it will need a new constitution. “It will enter a new political era,” writes Alex de Waal, an expert political analyst on Sudan. “It will inherit many issues of national identity and governance, almost certainly unresolved.”

Among the most critical issues is the status of an estimated 1.5 million southern Sudanese living in Khartoum and other northern towns. Although all southerners living throughout the country are eligible to vote in the referendum, many in the north have expressed increased anxiety over rights of citizenship. Human Rights Watch reports, “In recent months, officials in the northern ruling party have publicly threatened that southerners may not be able to stay in the north in the event of a secession vote.”

In a letter to President Obama, Refugees International urged attention to this issue — above all the other pressing concerns. “Citizenship and the protection of minority communities on either side of the border have the most potential to develop into serious humanitarian crises.” The letter continues, “We are concerned that the Government of Southern Sudan’s recently announced repatriation plan, called ‘Come Home to Choose,’ should be carefully planned and carried out in conjunction with international actors and should only repatriate those southerners who genuinely want to return.”

Darfur, where fighting continues today, will remain in the north regardless of the outcome of the referendum. Two million people continue to live a perilous existence in displaced persons camps, where some Darfurians have already been for seven years. In the north, opposition groups face potential risk as the political landscape shifts. Many had a lot at stake in the dream of a “new Sudan”, a dream that seems to be giving way to a divided Sudan.

DR Congo; Rwanda: September 23, 2010

Expert Insight into the Leaked UN Report

In a podcast interview on Voices of Genocide Prevention, Jason Stearns discusses the draft UN report on atrocities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.  Leaked to the press in August, the report raises the possibility that Rwandan troops and their rebel allies killed tens of thousands of Hutu civilians in the Congo in 1996 and 1997 in what could amount to genocide.

Here, in an extended transcript of the interview, Jason talks about the report’s methodology, the controversy over using the word ‘genocide’, and the history of violence in the region.  Listen or read the original interview here.  Jason Stearns is the former Chief UN Investigator on the Congo.  Learn more about the full UN report here.

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Sudan: September 21, 2010

The Borderlands of Sudan

With four months left before South Sudan is scheduled to vote on a referendum for independence, the 1,200 mile border separating the north and south of Sudan has not yet been established. A detailed picture of the complex situation along the line emerges in a new report, commissioned by the U.S. Institute of Peace and produced by Concordis International. The report offers snapshots of the border regions and how local issues could impact surrounding communities and a wider peace in Sudan.

The border is populated by a diversity of ethnic groups unprepared for and unfamiliar with the idea of formal separation. The region must still contend with unresolved issues related to the division of resources and land, rights of citizenship and migration, and the phantom of security guarantees. The result is greater mistrust, amplified instability, and a hardening of conflict memory.

“Wartime patterns of conflict have emerged reinvigorated,” the report describes. “Border communities in South Kordofan, Abyei, Bahr al Ghazal, South Darfur, and Upper Nile all said they would fight to ensure their claims to land ownership and land use are recognized and implemented.”

Violence in 2009 in South Sudan (described in situation updates last September and December) has raised the question of whether a new nation would or even could be united. The Concordis report explains, “‘Tribal violence’ in 2009 and the post-election defection of SPLA commanders have also exposed cleavages within the SPLA [South Sudanese Army] and wider southern societies, facilitated by the widespread presence of arms in the hands of civilians…”

Contest for land across the border region is driven by access to its resources, predominately oil, which makes up 98% of income to the government of South Sudan and 60% of total revenues to the government in the north. “Strategic interest in these resources is reflected in a history of redrawing boundaries in response to the economic opportunities they represent.”

One of these contested areas is Abyei. Tucked along the north-south border, Abyei is marked by a network of streams and nomadic migration routes. It has traditionally been inhabited by the agro-pastoralist Ngok Dinka, but it also becomes home to the Humr section of the Misseriya, who move from northern lands to spend up to eight months each year grazing their animals in the Abyei area. The fate of the region shifted with the discovery of oil in 1979, and both the north and the south have claimed this strategically valuable land.

“Abyei is a lynchpin of the CPA and carries the potential to bring the parties back to war,” the report states.

Inhabitants of Abyei will have the right to vote on whether they want to be part of the north or south in their own referendum, which will be held simultaneously with the south’s referendum. But questions over residency and tensions over land and natural resources remain. The Concordis report describes large numbers of Misseriya and Dinka reportedly trying to settle in the area ahead of the referendum. And Misseriya militia active in northern Abyei have publicly threatened to destabilize the referendum unless they are deemed eligible to participate.

“The next dry season starting in October will be the last opportunity to prevent insecurity spreading around the popular consultation and referendum time.”

DR Congo; Rwanda: September 9, 2010

UN Report on Congo Raises the Possibility of Genocide

Leaked to the press on August 26, a draft report by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights — which assesses human rights violations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) — has drawn international attention for asserting that invading Rwandan troops (APR) and their rebel allies, the AFDL, killed tens of thousands of Hutu, including many civilians, across eastern Zaire (former DRC) in 1996 and 1997. The violence, the report concludes, could be classified as genocide.

Containing descriptions of over 600 violent incidents, the draft report is the result of a UN exercise to map “the most serious violations of human rights and international humanitarian law committed within the territory of the DRC between March 1993 and June 2003.”

“In some cases,” the report states, “violations that initially appeared to be isolated crimes turned out to be an integral part of waves of violence occurring in a given geographical location or within a given timeframe.”

Over five hundred pages long, the draft report is a comprehensive overview of the violence that plagued the DRC from the final days of the Mobutu era through two successive international wars to the residual clashes and rampages of the region’s dispersive rebel groups. But it is the accusation of genocide that has attracted international notice and severe outrage from Rwanda, which has threatened to withdraw its peacekeepers from UN operations. “The UN can’t have it both ways. You can’t have a force serving as peacekeepers and it is the same force you are accusing of genocide,” Rwandan foreign minister Louise Mushikiwabo said. Rwanda has over 3,000 troops deployed with the joint UN-AU peacekeeping mission in Darfur, Sudan.

Ultimately deferring to the judgment of a competent court, the draft report states, “… it seems possible to infer a specific intention on the part of certain AFDL/APR commanders to partially destroy the Hutus in the DRC, and therefore to commit a crime of genocide, based on their conduct, words and the damning circumstances of the acts of violence committed by the men under their command.”

Another purpose of the mapping exercise was to review the DRC’s judicial capacities and formulate suggestions that would help the Congolese government deal with the legal, emotional, and economic legacies of the violence. The draft report proposes a mixed international/national judicial court that would apply international law, a new truth-seeking mechanism, and a comprehensive and creative approach to the issues of reparations.

The UN has delayed the publication of the final report until October 1st, in order to give countries more time to comment on it.