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Sudan: Archive

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Bosnia; Sudan: February 4, 2010

Director of National Intelligence Emphasizes Risk in Southern Sudan and Concern for Bosnia

Addressing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday, Dennis Blair, the Director of National Intelligence, emphasized — above all other parallel risks — the potential for mass killing or genocide in South Sudan. His analysis came as part of the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

Blair discussed the definition, triggers, strategies, and recent cases of mass killing:

The mass killing of civilians — defined as the deliberate killing of at least 1,000 unarmed civilians of a particular political identity by state or state-sponsored actors in a single event or over a sustained period — is a persistent feature of the global landscape. Within the past three years, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Sudan all suffered mass killing episodes through violence, starvation, or deaths in prison camps. Sri Lanka may also have experienced a mass killing last spring: roughly 7,000 civilians were killed during Colombo’s military victory over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), according to UN estimates.

The risk for mass killing is driven by the presence of ongoing internal conflict or regime crises, combined with relatively poor socioeconomic conditions, international isolation, recent protest activity, discriminatory policies, or frequent leadership turnover. In such contexts, mass killings are typically deliberate strategies by new or threatened elites to assert state or rebel authority, to clear territory of insurgents, or to deter populations from supporting rebel or antigovernment movements.

Looking ahead over the next five years, a number of countries in Africa and Asia are at significant risk for a new outbreak of mass killing. All of the countries at significant risk have or are at high risk for experiencing internal conflicts or regime crises and exhibit one or more of the additional factors for mass killing. Among these countries, a new mass killing or genocide is most likely to occur in Southern Sudan.

Blair’s statement fulfilled a recommendation presented in the final report of the Genocide Prevention Task Force, which the Museum convened with the U.S. Institute of Peace and The American Academy of Diplomacy. The report offered a blueprint for improving U.S. government response to threats of genocide and mass atrocities and included the following recommendation: “The director of national intelligence should initiate the preparation of a National Intelligence Estimate on worldwide risk of genocide and mass atrocities.”

Blair’s focus on the risk for mass killing or genocide in southern Sudan reflects growing international concern for Sudan as the nation approaches presidential elections in April and the 2011 referendum for southern independence.

Blair also emphasized to the Senate Committee the principal challenges to stability in the Balkans and highlighted several worrying signs in Bosnia:

I remain concerned about Bosnia’s future stability. While neither widespread violence nor a formal break-up of the state appears imminent, ethnic agendas still dominate the political process and reforms have stalled because of wrangling among the three main ethnic groups. The sides failed to agree on legal changes proposed jointly by the EU and the US at the end of 2009, undercutting efforts to strengthen the central government so that it is capable of taking the country into NATO and the EU. Bosnian Serb leaders seek to reverse some reforms, warn of legal challenges to the authority of the international community, and assert their right to eventually hold a referendum on secession, all of which is contributing to growing interethnic tensions. This dynamic appears likely to continue, as Bosnia’s leaders will harden their positions to appeal to their nationalist constituents ahead of elections this fall.

Sudan:

Second Chance for Genocide Charges Against Bashir

Appeals judges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) have reversed a decision of the Pre-Trial Chamber of the ICC not to include genocide in the charges against Sudanese President Bashir. The Pre-Trial Chamber will have to reconsider anew the charges, which include three counts of genocide.

In March 2009, when the ICC announced its historic decision to issue an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Bashir for his leadership role in orchestrating the conflict in Darfur, the Pre-Trial Chamber issued an indictment with charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes, but did not accept the prosecution’s charge of genocide. The pre-trial judges believed that the prosecution had not provided enough evidence to support the genocide charge.

The prosecution subsequently appealed the decision to the Court’s Appeals Chamber.  Prosecutors argued that the time to provide such evidence was during the main trial and not when they were simply seeking to bring charges. In reversing the decision, the Appeals Chamber explained that the standard of evidence used by the Pre-Trial Chamber to reject the charge of genocide was “higher and more demanding than what is required” and that it was “materially affected by an error of law.”

Prosecutors will now have to re-present the case for charging President Bashir with genocide.

Sudan: December 18, 2009

“Mass graves? We’ve never had mass graves.”

The year 2009 was the most violent South Sudan has seen since the signing of the 2005 peace agreement, with the death rate higher than in Darfur. In clashes far more serious than simple cattle raids, villages — rather than cattle camps — have been attacked and women and children targeted. “Violence is surging,” reports Medecins Sans Frontieres. “Plunging people from one disaster to the next.” UN officials have noticed an unusual “ease and availability of ammunition” in the region, which suggests an influx of weapons, possibly from northern Sudanese officials interested in breeding chaos in the south.

“This is madness,” said Diing Akol Diing, a county commissioner near Duk Padiet, one of the sites of recent violence. Showing a photograph of a dozen people wrapped in blankets, buried in a ditch, he tells The New York Times, “Mass graves? We’ve never had mass graves.”

In Darfur, the situation remains unstable, unpredictable, and dangerous. In December, five peacekeepers from Rwanda, members of UNAMID, the UN force in Darfur, were killed in separate incidents by unidentified gunmen. The UN’s latest report on UNAMID documented repeated cases of government officials harassing and limiting movements of the international peacekeepers in violation of the Status of Forces Agreement with the government of Sudan.

International organizations are beginning to ring alarm bells for the entirety of Sudan as the nation’s April elections approach. In a new report, “Sudan: Preventing Implosion”, the International Crisis Group (ICG) warns that “Sudan is sliding towards violent breakup.” It insists that without cooperation to support the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and additional negotiations to settle conflict in Darfur, a “return to North-South war and escalation of conflict in Darfur are likely.”

The report further explains that the National Congress Party (NCP) — the controlling party in Khartoum — and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) in the South want elections for the wrong reasons. The NCP hopes to regain legitimacy for President Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The SLPM hopes that elections will help South Sudan focus on its self-determination referendum in 2011. According to the ICG, “[The SPLM] threatens to declare unilateral independence if pushed to accept a referendum postponement.”

The dominating interests of the NCP and SPLM threaten to squeeze out opposition parties in both the north and south, as well as disenfranchise millions of citizens who could not register to vote. ICG reports that at least two million Darfur IDPs who have been unable to return home may be kept from the political process, while occupiers of their lands elect local representatives.

While a return to war is not inevitable in Sudan, international actors as well as key players across Sudan must redouble their efforts to guarantee the people of Sudan a secure and politically stable future.

Sudan: November 6, 2009

African Union Panel Outlines A Way Forward for Darfur and Sudan

After spending more than 40 days in Darfur over the course of six months and engaging in over 2,700 consultations with people across Darfur, the African Union Panel on Darfur has delivered its final report. Chaired by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, the Panel described Darfur as a “Sudanese crisis” and stated:

It [the crisis in Darfur] results from a legacy of the unequal distribution of power and wealth in Sudan, whereby peripheral regions, including Darfur, have been historically neglected. The war in Darfur cannot be resolved outside the context of a response to the wider challenges facing Sudan as a nation, of democratic transformation, of creating a new and equitable political and developmental dispensation, and of giving the best chance for national unity.

The report offered recommendations on a range of critical issues, including: establishing a roadmap to end the violence; offering compensation for individual and communal losses; strengthening the UN force in Darfur; and mobilizing Sudan’s neighbors to support the peace processes.

Addressing the difficult subject of justice and reconciliation, the Panel recommended forming a hybrid court with international and national judges and investigators.  This recommendation was intended to response to what it described as a polarized discussion of justice after the ICC arrest warrant for President Bashir. By including an international component, the Panel sought to alleviate concerns many Darfurians have about Sudan’s justice system, while also acknowledging that the government of Sudan has not recognized the ICC’s jurisdiction. Other mechanisms recommended include a truth, justice and reconciliation commission, reparations, and a plan for economic and social recovery.

Although the Panel sets a new standard for African leadership in resolving crises on the continent, the strength of this report will ultimately lie in its implementation. Meanwhile, signs of progress across the whole nation are being watched for carefully, as Sudan beings a month-long voter registration drive in a key step towards the April 2010 presidential elections, the first democratic elections in 24 years.

The final report of the African Union Panel on Darfur is available here.

Sudan: October 19, 2009

U.S. Outlines New Policy Toward Sudan

On October 19, the Obama Administration unveiled a new strategy toward Sudan, which aims to end the humanitarian crisis in Darfur, as well as ensure the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. The new policy promises to offer incentives if Khartoum makes progress and “increased pressure” if it does not.

They cited several critical lessons from past dealings with the government of Sudan:

  • The United States cannot succeed in achieving our policy by focusing exclusively on Darfur or CPA implementation — both must be addressed seriously and simultaneously, while also working to resolve and prevent conflict throughout Sudan.
  • United States policy must be agile enough to address discrete emergency crises, while maintaining a sustained focus on long-term stability.
  • To advance peace and security in Sudan, we must engage with allies and with those with whom we disagree. United States diplomacy must be both sustained and broad, encompassing not just the National Congress Party, SPLM, and major Darfuri rebel groups but also critical regional and international actors.
  • Assessments of progress and decisions regarding incentives and disincentives must not be based on process-related accomplishments (i.e., the signing of a MOU or the issuance of a set of visas), but rather based on verifiable changes in conditions on the ground.
  • Accountability for genocide and atrocities is necessary for reconciliation and lasting peace.
  • It must be clear to all parties that Sudanese support for counterterrorism objectives is valued, but cannot be used as a bargaining chip to evade responsibilities in Darfur or implementing the CPA.

And outlines what their priorities will be moving forward:

  1. A definitive end to conflict, gross human rights abuses, and genocide in Darfur.
  2. Implementation of the North-South CPA that results in a peaceful post-2011 Sudan, or an orderly path toward two separate and viable states at peace with each other.
  3. Ensure that Sudan does not provide a safe haven for international terrorists.

To learn more, read coverage of the new strategy in The New York Times and The Washington Post.

Sudan: October 8, 2009

In Darfur, the War Continues

With inter-ethnic clashes in South Sudan and the nation as a whole bracing itself for upcoming elections, the western region of Darfur has been reminded that the war is not over. In mid-September, attacks by the Sudan Armed Forces around Korma North Darfur were reported to have killed 16 civilians, wounded dozens more, and destroyed several villages. An estimated 2.7 million people still live in displaced persons camps in Darfur and 200,000 refugees remain in Chad, unable to return home for fear of precisely this kind of violence between the rebel groups and the Sudanese government.

Efforts to address the current situation in Sudan continued this month with an international conference on Sudan in Moscow, attended by the UN, AU, and League of Arab States. Peace talks on Darfur are set to resume by the end of October in Doha.

Sudan: September 21, 2009

“Total Fear”: The Changing Nature of Violence in South Sudan

As international diplomatic attention focuses on Sudan’s approaching political deadlines, more incidents of violence have occurred in the South. On August 29, in the latest in a series of devastating clashes, a violent attack in Twic East County, Jonglei State resulted in the deaths of 42 people, many of them women and children, and displaced up to 24,000 people.

Although populations in the region have long suffered from cycles of violence, it is now clear that the nature of violence has changed.

Jonathan Whittall, head of the Medecins Sans Frontieres mission in South Sudan, explained that the August 29th attack represents a new development:

The violent clashes are different to the traditional ‘cattle rustling’ that normally occurs each year. Women and children, usually spared in this fighting, are now deliberately targeted and the number of deaths are higher than the number of wounded. In the last six violent incidents that MSF responded to in Jonglei and Upper Nile States over the last six months, official figures show that 1,057 people were killed in contrast to 259 wounded, with more than 60,000 displaced. This is new — the intention is to attack a village and to kill. The result is a population living in total fear, with significant humanitarian and medical needs.

Update: Burning buildings and attacking churchgoers, militiamen killed over a hundred people in a raid on the village of Duk Padiet in Jonglei State on September 20. Southerners have accused Khartoum of arming rival tribes in the region, although the government denies the claim.

Sudan: September 10, 2009

Accelerating the Path to Peace in Sudan

As Sudan moves closer to making significant political choices in the near future (national elections in April 2010 and a referendum on southern independence in 2011), international efforts to establish firm peace agreements in Darfur and southern Sudan have accelerated.

Dedicated to addressing matters of peace, justice, and reconciliation in Darfur, the African Union Panel on Darfur, chaired by President Thabo Mbeki, plans to release its recommendations to Sudan and the African Union at the end of September.  Meanwhile, Scott Gration, President Obama’s Special Envoy to Sudan, is returning to the region this week to continue facilitating bilateral negotiations between the SPLM and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) that focus on achieving a full implementation of the CPA.  These discussions will concentrate on resolving two contentious issues in the CPA: the use of the census results and an agreement on technical provisions regarding the 2011 referendum.  In August, Gration witnessed the initial signing of the bilateral agreement.

Gration will also travel to Darfur to visit IDP camps in an effort to assess the humanitarian situation since the NGO explusions and to meet with Darfur women leaders to discuss programs aimed at addressing gender-based violence.

Sudan: August 4, 2009

Women and Children Killed by Clashes in South Sudan

In the latest of a series of violent clashes between ethnic groups in South Sudan, at least 185 people - mostly women and children - were killed on Sunday outside of Akobo. In the midst of a severe food shortage, members of the Lou Nuer tribe were on a fishing expedition when they were attacked by heavily-armed men of the Murle ethnic group.

Exacerbated by intense competition over land and resources, as well as an ample supply of arms, attacks and counter-attacks have already claimed over 700 lives in southern Sudan this year.

Meanwhile, the Darfur rebel group Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) has clashed with Sudanese forces in the oil-producing region of Southern Kordofan, which neighbors Darfur. The fighting confirms growing concern that JEM will move into Kordofan, igniting new violence against civilians in areas already disputed between the north and south.

Sudan: July 22, 2009

Court of Arbitration Delivers Final Ruling on Abyei

On July 22, 2009, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague delivered the final ruling on the boundary dispute over Abyei, an oil rich region claimed by both north and south Sudan.

Under the 2005 CPA, both the precise borders and final status of Abyei were left unresolved. The first step to resolving Abyei’s status was to establish borders for the contested region, a task delegated to an International Boundary Commission. The Government of Sudan rejected the decision, and tensions built on both sides, until May 2008, when full scale fighting in Abyei resulted in the displacement of 50,000 people and destroyed the town.

The border issue was then presented before judges at the Permanent Court of Arbitration, who ruled today that the Boundary Commission had exceeded its mandate in the determination of the Northern, Eastern, and Western borders of Abyei.

Today’s decision reduced the size of the contested area, ruling that several areas — including the Heglig oilfield — were not part of Abyei. Inhabitants of areas that are within the newly established borders have the right to vote on a referendum in 2011 on whether they want to be permanently a part of north or south Sudan.

Both Sudanese parties have agreed to abide by the Court’s decision, although peacekeepers heightened their presence in Abyei this week. In responding to the ruling, Dirdeiry Mohamed Ahmed, the head of the northern government delegation in The Hague, said, “We welcome the fact that oilfields are now excluded from the Abyei area, particularly the Heglig oil field.” Riak Machar, the south’s delegate and the head of the SPLM, said, “I think this is going to consolidate peace in Sudan. It is a victory for the Sudanese people and a victory for peace.”

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