Overview: Sudan

Sudan is Africa’s largest country and has been at war with only a brief reprieve (1971-1982) since its independence from Great Britain in 1956. With power centralized in the north around its capital Khartoum and natural resources concentrated in the South, Sudan is further divided by religion, ethnicity, tribal differences, and economic disparities. Lasting over two decades, the second civil war between the North and South resulted in the deaths of an estimated 2 million people and displaced 4 million others. An on-going conflict in the western region of Darfur was marked by a period of intensive, systematic targeting of the civilian populations from the Fur, Zaghawa, and Masaalit ethnic groups. In 2004, the Museum issued a genocide emergency in response to this violence.

Today, Sudan’s entire civilian population faces enormous threats from continuing and potentially new violence. The country’s future is at stake with upcoming national elections (April 2010) and a referendum on southern independence (2011), as stipulated in the increasingly fragile Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended the civil war in 2005. These major political events will take place amid ongoing conflict in Darfur, sporadic incidents of violence in the South, uncertainty about the status of key transitional regions between the north and south, and rumblings of discontent in the east. Half of Darfur’s six million people are dependent on a precarious international aid effort, as displacement and insecurity continue.

The Museum’s warning for Sudan stems from the Sudanese government’s established capacity and willingness to commit genocide and related crimes against humanity. This is evidenced by actions the government has taken in the western region of Darfur, the Nuba Mountains, and the South that include:

• Use of mass starvation and mass forcible displacement as a weapon of destruction;
• Pattern of obstructing humanitarian aid;
• Harassment of internally displaced persons;
• Bombing of hospitals, clinics, schools, and other civilian sites;
• Use of rape as a weapon against targeted groups;
• Employing a divide-to-destroy strategy of pitting ethnic groups against each other, with enormous loss of civilian life;
• Training and supporting ethnic militias who commit atrocities;
• Destroying indigenous cultures;
• Enslavement of women and children by government-support militias;
• Impeding and failing to fully implement peace agreements.

While rebel groups in the south and Darfur have also committed abuses, the Sudanese government, led by Omar Al-Bashir, who has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity, bears primary responsibility for atrocities against and continued danger to civilians.

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Building Democracy from the Ashes of War: Elections in Sudan

In just a little over one month, Sudan will face its first major elections in 24 years.

They will be held for six levels of government, including the presidency and the national legislature. The presidential election requires an absolute majority vote (50 per cent plus one) in the first round. If none of the candidates receive this majority, there will be a second election: a run-off round. The major presidential candidates include President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir from the controlling party in the north, the National Congress Party (NCP), and Yasir Arman from the south’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).

Delivering the opening remarks at the political parties summit in southern Sudan, former Burundi President Pierre Buyoya, representing the African Union Panel on Darfur, remarked, “The challenges of building democracy and development from the ashes of war are great indeed.”

A significant political milestone in their own right, the elections are a pivotal step on the road to meeting final implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended the two-decades civil war between the north and the south. The conduct and outcomes of the elections will indicate the future direction of the nation, as it begins a difficult year in the lead-up to the 2011 referendum on southern independence. While many challenges lie ahead — including resolving the status of the oil-rich border regions between the north and south — the elections next month present many of their own concerns.

Violence, displacement, and political marginalization are still a reality for many of Sudan’s citizens, and several ongoing issues threaten the viability of the elections:

Referendum

It is important to understand the electoral process in context with the overall requirements of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. Alongside the 2011 referendum on southern independence, the CPA set up distinct terms for determining the futures of the hotly contested border regions: Abyei, Southern Kordofan, and Southern Blue Nile.

Although Southern Kordofan has been considered part of the north through the transition period since the signing of the CPA, its population was split between supporting the north and south during the war. The fighting was intense and brutal, particularly in the Nuba Mountains. According to the CPA, the core issues that have divided the population, including land rights and self-determination, can be readdressed through “popular consultations” led by state assembly members.

Inhabitants of Abyei will have the right to vote on a separate referendum in 2011 on whether they want to be permanently a part of the north or south.

Census

A prerequisite of the elections, a national census was completed last April after numerous delays. Its conclusions would help determine the distribution of wealth and power, including seats in the National Assembly. Southern Sudanese rejected the findings, arguing that the census substantially undercounted the population of Southerners. The NCP and SPLM have, however, recently reached a deal on the contested census by agreeing to allocate an extra 40 seats to the south in the National Assembly. The deal also apportions two more seats to the border region of Abyei and four to the oil state of Southern Kordofan (includes the Nuba Mountains.)

To resolve SPLM’s specific concerns about Southern Kordofan, the north and south agreed to postpone the region’s state elections until a more thorough census could be conducted. Getting the census — and the subsequent distribution of seats — right in Southern Kordofan is especially important because it is the state assembly members who will lead “popular consultations” on the future of the state.

Political Freedoms

Tasked with monitoring the elections, the Carter Center has expressed concerns about the political environment in Sudan. Recent incidents that have undermined political rights and fundamental freedoms include arbitrary arrests and detentions and harassment of civil society and political party members. In addition, the Center warned about the government’s security forces restricting legitimate activity related to the exercise of freedom of assembly, association, and speech.

In Darfur, state election committees have been unable to access IDP camps, where a low rate of voter registration indicates the extent to which thousands of displaced persons have been excluded from or boycotted in opposition to participating in the elections. Carter Center observers reported seeing military units, police, and security service agents not only present at registration centers in Darfur, but sometimes actively engaged in voter registration.

Violence

Over the past year, villages in South Sudan have been attacked in serious clashes that have targeted women and children. The violence and a corresponding increase in ethnic tension are exacerbated by a noticeable influx of weapons in the region.

Meanwhile, just days after a milestone ceasefire signed between Darfur rebel group Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and the Sudanese government, violence erupted in central Darfur. Government forces engaged a faction of the rebel Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM), which had not agreed to the ceasefire. This latest fighting raised the number of displaced around the town Deribat to 100,000. Adding another layer of complexity, JEM has threatened to pull out of its ceasefire if Khartoum negotiates with SLM on a parallel track.

Straining already fragile conditions, violence in both Darfur and South Sudan will likely affect the upcoming elections. The only question is how significantly.

Major presidential candidates include:

Omar Hassan Al-Bashir — National Congress Party

Born in 1944, Bashir orchestrated a military coup in 1989 that overthrew President Sadeq al-Mahdi’s democratically elected government. He assumed control by banning all political parties and cracking down on the press and other independent voices. Shortly after attaining power, Bashir appointed himself chief of state, prime minister, and minister of defense. He intensified the ongoing war with the south, presiding over brutal attacks against civilians, including Bahr al-Ghazal, the Nuba Moutains, and clearances of populations from oil-rich areas.

In 1999, President Bashir consolidated his dictatorial control when he removed his chief threat: once ally and former leader of the National Islamic Front, Hassan al-Turabi, who was then serving as Speaker of the National Assembly. That same year, Bashir declared a state of national emergency, suspended the constitution, and disbanded the National Assembly.

In 2004, Bashir’s government negotiated an end to the two-and-a-half decade civil war between north and south Sudan that killed at least 2 million people, mostly civilians, and displaced more than 4 million people. Around that same time, however, Bashir’s government implemented systematic assaults against civilian targets in Darfur, Sudan’s western province where hundreds of thousands have died and millions have lost their homes since 2003.

On March 4, 2009, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant charging Bashir with five counts of crimes against humanity and two counts of war crimes for his leadership role in orchestrating the conflict in Darfur.  This decision marks the first time the ICC has issued an arrest warrant for a sitting head of state.

Yasir Arman — Sudan People’s Liberation Movement

A northern Muslim who joined the SPLM 24 years ago, Arman is a senior figure in the party. He serves as Deputy Secretary General for Northern Sudan and the head of the SPLM bloc in the National Assembly.

The SPLM decided to nominate Arman instead of Salva Kiir, the party leader and current president of southern Sudan. Kiir intends to seek re-election to the post of southern president, a vital position to occupy as the region prepares for the 2011 referendum on southern independence.

Sadeq Al-Mahdi — Umma Party

Oxford educated, Mahdi is a spiritual leader and head of the Umma Party. He was elected prime minister of Sudan in 1966 and again in 1986. In 1989, his government was toppled in a bloodless military coup by officers including the current President Bashir. Mahdi was imprisoned until early 1991. Although Mahdi’s party was the largest in Sudan in 1986, it has since split into factions, although it continues to enjoy mass support in Darfur.

Mahdi is Imam of the Isalmic Ansar, a Sufi sect with allegiance to Muhammad Ahmad, the self-proclaimed messianic savor (the Mahdi), who famously fought the British General Gordon in the 19th century.

Abdallah Deng Nhial — Popular Congress Party

Nhial is the only southern candidate in the presidential race. A south Sudanese Muslim, Nhial was part of Bashir’s government before Hassan al-Turabi lost his leadership battle with Bashir and split to form his own opposition Popular Congress Party.

Nhial is Dinka, the largest southern Sudanese tribe, and is from a multi-faith family that includes Christians, Muslims, and followers of traditional religions.

Hatim Al-Sir — Democratic Unionist Party

Sir represents the Democratic Unionist Party, a sectarian party that formed a coalition government with Mahdi in Sudan’s last democratic elections in 1986. Sir is a distant relative of the powerful al-Merghani family, which commands the leadership of the Democratic Unionist Party, although the party has split many times. Sir left Sudan in 1989 to follow the party’s religious leader into exile, and he only returned in 2009.

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Director of National Intelligence Emphasizes Risk in Southern Sudan and Concern for Bosnia

Addressing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday, Dennis Blair, the Director of National Intelligence, emphasized — above all other parallel risks — the potential for mass killing or genocide in South Sudan. His analysis came as part of the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

Blair discussed the definition, triggers, strategies, and recent cases of mass killing:

The mass killing of civilians — defined as the deliberate killing of at least 1,000 unarmed civilians of a particular political identity by state or state-sponsored actors in a single event or over a sustained period — is a persistent feature of the global landscape. Within the past three years, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Sudan all suffered mass killing episodes through violence, starvation, or deaths in prison camps. Sri Lanka may also have experienced a mass killing last spring: roughly 7,000 civilians were killed during Colombo’s military victory over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), according to UN estimates.

The risk for mass killing is driven by the presence of ongoing internal conflict or regime crises, combined with relatively poor socioeconomic conditions, international isolation, recent protest activity, discriminatory policies, or frequent leadership turnover. In such contexts, mass killings are typically deliberate strategies by new or threatened elites to assert state or rebel authority, to clear territory of insurgents, or to deter populations from supporting rebel or antigovernment movements.

Looking ahead over the next five years, a number of countries in Africa and Asia are at significant risk for a new outbreak of mass killing. All of the countries at significant risk have or are at high risk for experiencing internal conflicts or regime crises and exhibit one or more of the additional factors for mass killing. Among these countries, a new mass killing or genocide is most likely to occur in Southern Sudan.

Blair’s statement fulfilled a recommendation presented in the final report of the Genocide Prevention Task Force, which the Museum convened with the U.S. Institute of Peace and The American Academy of Diplomacy. The report offered a blueprint for improving U.S. government response to threats of genocide and mass atrocities and included the following recommendation: “The director of national intelligence should initiate the preparation of a National Intelligence Estimate on worldwide risk of genocide and mass atrocities.”

Blair’s focus on the risk for mass killing or genocide in southern Sudan reflects growing international concern for Sudan as the nation approaches presidential elections in April and the 2011 referendum for southern independence.

Blair also emphasized to the Senate Committee the principal challenges to stability in the Balkans and highlighted several worrying signs in Bosnia:

I remain concerned about Bosnia’s future stability. While neither widespread violence nor a formal break-up of the state appears imminent, ethnic agendas still dominate the political process and reforms have stalled because of wrangling among the three main ethnic groups. The sides failed to agree on legal changes proposed jointly by the EU and the US at the end of 2009, undercutting efforts to strengthen the central government so that it is capable of taking the country into NATO and the EU. Bosnian Serb leaders seek to reverse some reforms, warn of legal challenges to the authority of the international community, and assert their right to eventually hold a referendum on secession, all of which is contributing to growing interethnic tensions. This dynamic appears likely to continue, as Bosnia’s leaders will harden their positions to appeal to their nationalist constituents ahead of elections this fall.

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Second Chance for Genocide Charges Against Bashir

Appeals judges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) have reversed a decision of the Pre-Trial Chamber of the ICC not to include genocide in the charges against Sudanese President Bashir. The Pre-Trial Chamber will have to reconsider anew the charges, which include three counts of genocide.

In March 2009, when the ICC announced its historic decision to issue an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Bashir for his leadership role in orchestrating the conflict in Darfur, the Pre-Trial Chamber issued an indictment with charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes, but did not accept the prosecution’s charge of genocide. The pre-trial judges believed that the prosecution had not provided enough evidence to support the genocide charge.

The prosecution subsequently appealed the decision to the Court’s Appeals Chamber.  Prosecutors argued that the time to provide such evidence was during the main trial and not when they were simply seeking to bring charges. In reversing the decision, the Appeals Chamber explained that the standard of evidence used by the Pre-Trial Chamber to reject the charge of genocide was “higher and more demanding than what is required” and that it was “materially affected by an error of law.”

Prosecutors will now have to re-present the case for charging President Bashir with genocide.

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“Mass graves? We’ve never had mass graves.”

The year 2009 was the most violent South Sudan has seen since the signing of the 2005 peace agreement, with the death rate higher than in Darfur. In clashes far more serious than simple cattle raids, villages — rather than cattle camps — have been attacked and women and children targeted. “Violence is surging,” reports Medecins Sans Frontieres. “Plunging people from one disaster to the next.” UN officials have noticed an unusual “ease and availability of ammunition” in the region, which suggests an influx of weapons, possibly from northern Sudanese officials interested in breeding chaos in the south.

“This is madness,” said Diing Akol Diing, a county commissioner near Duk Padiet, one of the sites of recent violence. Showing a photograph of a dozen people wrapped in blankets, buried in a ditch, he tells The New York Times, “Mass graves? We’ve never had mass graves.”

In Darfur, the situation remains unstable, unpredictable, and dangerous. In December, five peacekeepers from Rwanda, members of UNAMID, the UN force in Darfur, were killed in separate incidents by unidentified gunmen. The UN’s latest report on UNAMID documented repeated cases of government officials harassing and limiting movements of the international peacekeepers in violation of the Status of Forces Agreement with the government of Sudan.

International organizations are beginning to ring alarm bells for the entirety of Sudan as the nation’s April elections approach. In a new report, “Sudan: Preventing Implosion“, the International Crisis Group (ICG) warns that “Sudan is sliding towards violent breakup.” It insists that without cooperation to support the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and additional negotiations to settle conflict in Darfur, a “return to North-South war and escalation of conflict in Darfur are likely.”

The report further explains that the National Congress Party (NCP) — the controlling party in Khartoum — and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) in the South want elections for the wrong reasons. The NCP hopes to regain legitimacy for President Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The SLPM hopes that elections will help South Sudan focus on its self-determination referendum in 2011. According to the ICG, “[The SPLM] threatens to declare unilateral independence if pushed to accept a referendum postponement.”

The dominating interests of the NCP and SPLM threaten to squeeze out opposition parties in both the north and south, as well as disenfranchise millions of citizens who could not register to vote. ICG reports that at least two million Darfur IDPs who have been unable to return home may be kept from the political process, while occupiers of their lands elect local representatives.

While a return to war is not inevitable in Sudan, international actors as well as key players across Sudan must redouble their efforts to guarantee the people of Sudan a secure and politically stable future.

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African Union Panel Outlines A Way Forward for Darfur and Sudan

After spending more than 40 days in Darfur over the course of six months and engaging in over 2,700 consultations with people across Darfur, the African Union Panel on Darfur has delivered its final report. Chaired by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, the Panel described Darfur as a “Sudanese crisis” and stated:

It [the crisis in Darfur] results from a legacy of the unequal distribution of power and wealth in Sudan, whereby peripheral regions, including Darfur, have been historically neglected. The war in Darfur cannot be resolved outside the context of a response to the wider challenges facing Sudan as a nation, of democratic transformation, of creating a new and equitable political and developmental dispensation, and of giving the best chance for national unity.

The report offered recommendations on a range of critical issues, including: establishing a roadmap to end the violence; offering compensation for individual and communal losses; strengthening the UN force in Darfur; and mobilizing Sudan’s neighbors to support the peace processes.

Addressing the difficult subject of justice and reconciliation, the Panel recommended forming a hybrid court with international and national judges and investigators.  This recommendation was intended to response to what it described as a polarized discussion of justice after the ICC arrest warrant for President Bashir. By including an international component, the Panel sought to alleviate concerns many Darfurians have about Sudan’s justice system, while also acknowledging that the government of Sudan has not recognized the ICC’s jurisdiction. Other mechanisms recommended include a truth, justice and reconciliation commission, reparations, and a plan for economic and social recovery.

Although the Panel sets a new standard for African leadership in resolving crises on the continent, the strength of this report will ultimately lie in its implementation. Meanwhile, signs of progress across the whole nation are being watched for carefully, as Sudan beings a month-long voter registration drive in a key step towards the April 2010 presidential elections, the first democratic elections in 24 years.

The final report of the African Union Panel on Darfur is available here.

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U.S. Outlines New Policy Toward Sudan

On October 19, the Obama Administration unveiled a new strategy toward Sudan, which aims to end the humanitarian crisis in Darfur, as well as ensure the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. The new policy promises to offer incentives if Khartoum makes progress and “increased pressure” if it does not.

They cited several critical lessons from past dealings with the government of Sudan:

• The United States cannot succeed in achieving our policy by focusing exclusively on Darfur or CPA implementation — both must be addressed seriously and simultaneously, while also working to resolve and prevent conflict throughout Sudan.
• United States policy must be agile enough to address discrete emergency crises, while maintaining a sustained focus on long-term stability.
• To advance peace and security in Sudan, we must engage with allies and with those with whom we disagree. United States diplomacy must be both sustained and broad, encompassing not just the National Congress Party, SPLM, and major Darfuri rebel groups but also critical regional and international actors.
• Assessments of progress and decisions regarding incentives and disincentives must not be based on process-related accomplishments (i.e., the signing of a MOU or the issuance of a set of visas), but rather based on verifiable changes in conditions on the ground.
• Accountability for genocide and atrocities is necessary for reconciliation and lasting peace.
• It must be clear to all parties that Sudanese support for counterterrorism objectives is valued, but cannot be used as a bargaining chip to evade responsibilities in Darfur or implementing the CPA.

And outlines what their priorities will be moving forward:

1. A definitive end to conflict, gross human rights abuses, and genocide in Darfur.
2. Implementation of the North-South CPA that results in a peaceful post-2011 Sudan, or an orderly path toward two separate and viable states at peace with each other.
3. Ensure that Sudan does not provide a safe haven for international terrorists.

To learn more, read coverage of the new strategy in The New York Times and The Washington Post.

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In Darfur, the War Continues

With inter-ethnic clashes in South Sudan and the nation as a whole bracing itself for upcoming elections, the western region of Darfur has been reminded that the war is not over. In mid-September, attacks by the Sudan Armed Forces around Korma North Darfur were reported to have killed 16 civilians, wounded dozens more, and destroyed several villages. An estimated 2.7 million people still live in displaced persons camps in Darfur and 200,000 refugees remain in Chad, unable to return home for fear of precisely this kind of violence between the rebel groups and the Sudanese government.

Efforts to address the current situation in Sudan continued this month with an international conference on Sudan in Moscow, attended by the UN, AU, and League of Arab States. Peace talks on Darfur are set to resume by the end of October in Doha.

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“Total Fear”: The Changing Nature of Violence in South Sudan

As international diplomatic attention focuses on Sudan’s approaching political deadlines, more incidents of violence have occurred in the South. On August 29, in the latest in a series of devastating clashes, a violent attack in Twic East County, Jonglei State resulted in the deaths of 42 people, many of them women and children, and displaced up to 24,000 people.

Although populations in the region have long suffered from cycles of violence, it is now clear that the nature of violence has changed.

Jonathan Whittall, head of the Medecins Sans Frontieres mission in South Sudan, explained that the August 29th attack represents a new development:

The violent clashes are different to the traditional ‘cattle rustling’ that normally occurs each year. Women and children, usually spared in this fighting, are now deliberately targeted and the number of deaths are higher than the number of wounded. In the last six violent incidents that MSF responded to in Jonglei and Upper Nile States over the last six months, official figures show that 1,057 people were killed in contrast to 259 wounded, with more than 60,000 displaced. This is new — the intention is to attack a village and to kill. The result is a population living in total fear, with significant humanitarian and medical needs.

Update: Burning buildings and attacking churchgoers, militiamen killed over a hundred people in a raid on the village of Duk Padiet in Jonglei State on September 20. Southerners have accused Khartoum of arming rival tribes in the region, although the government denies the claim.

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Accelerating the Path to Peace in Sudan

As Sudan moves closer to making significant political choices in the near future (national elections in April 2010 and a referendum on southern independence in 2011), international efforts to establish firm peace agreements in Darfur and southern Sudan have accelerated.

Dedicated to addressing matters of peace, justice, and reconciliation in Darfur, the African Union Panel on Darfur, chaired by President Thabo Mbeki, plans to release its recommendations to Sudan and the African Union at the end of September.  Meanwhile, Scott Gration, President Obama’s Special Envoy to Sudan, is returning to the region this week to continue facilitating bilateral negotiations between the SPLM and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) that focus on achieving a full implementation of the CPA.  These discussions will concentrate on resolving two contentious issues in the CPA: the use of the census results and an agreement on technical provisions regarding the 2011 referendum.  In August, Gration witnessed the initial signing of the bilateral agreement.

Gration will also travel to Darfur to visit IDP camps in an effort to assess the humanitarian situation since the NGO explusions and to meet with Darfur women leaders to discuss programs aimed at addressing gender-based violence.

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Women and Children Killed by Clashes in South Sudan

In the latest of a series of violent clashes between ethnic groups in South Sudan, at least 185 people - mostly women and children - were killed on Sunday outside of Akobo. In the midst of a severe food shortage, members of the Lou Nuer tribe were on a fishing expedition when they were attacked by heavily-armed men of the Murle ethnic group.

Exacerbated by intense competition over land and resources, as well as an ample supply of arms, attacks and counter-attacks have already claimed over 700 lives in southern Sudan this year.

Meanwhile, the Darfur rebel group Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) has clashed with Sudanese forces in the oil-producing region of Southern Kordofan, which neighbors Darfur. The fighting confirms growing concern that JEM will move into Kordofan, igniting new violence against civilians in areas already disputed between the north and south.

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