Blog Home > early warning project
July 31, 2018
The Early Warning Project uses patterns from past instances of mass killing to forecast where new mass killing episodes are most likely to happen in the future. Each year we update our list of countries experiencing state- and nonstate-led mass killing. The following report compiles our determinations for onsets of mass killing in 2017 and those episodes that we can now judge have ended.
June 11, 2018
South Sudan is the country most likely to see an onset of mass killing in 2018, according to participants in the Early Warning Project’s most recent public wiki survey.
May 21, 2018
One goal of the Simon-Skjodt Center’s research program is to explore new methodologies to advance the state of the art in atrocity prevention. Towards this end, a recent pilot project analyzed dangerous speech in central Mali, building on the Holocaust Museum’s hate speech work and adding to the Early Warning Project’s broader Mali assessment.
November 30, 2017
To help us forecast atrocity risk in 2018, please participate in our annual wiki survey, an innovative opinion aggregation method that presents countries head-to-head and simply asks respondents to choose which is more likely to experience a new mass killing in the new year. The survey will run for one month, until December 31, 2017.
November 29, 2017
Bangladesh has made considerable social and economic progress in recent years, but sharp divisions between major political parties, past violence around the 2014 election, increased authoritarianism, impunity for security forces, localized patronage politics, and exceptionally high stakes for the coming election indicate a threat of violence that could reach a greater scale than in the past.
November 15, 2017
The recent coup in Zimbabwe indicates an increase in the country's risk of mass killing, according to the Good Judgment Open opinion pool run by the Early Warning Project of the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide and Dartmouth College’s Dickey Center for International Understanding.
October 16, 2017
In recent months, international officials and humanitarian groups have begun to sound the alarm about resurgent violence and the risk of further mass atrocities in the Central African Republic.
September 25, 2017
In April 2017 the Early Warning Project launched a new set of questions through a public opinion pool to crowdsource questions on atrocity risk around the world. Since then, 317 participants have cast 7025 forecasts in response to questions asking about mass killing risk in 16 countries that the project has identified as high risk. The Good Judgment Project, an online forecasting platform, aggregates the individual forecasts from both experts and amateur volunteers to alert EWP of evolving risk of large-scale violence against civilians.
September 19, 2017
In April 2017 the Early Warning Project launched a new set of questions through a public opinion pool to crowdsource questions on atrocity risk around the world. Since then, 317 participants have cast 7,025 forecasts in response to questions asking about mass killing risk in 16 countries that the project has identified as high risk.
July 27, 2017
The Simon-Skjodt Center for Prevention of Genocide recently concluded the field research portion of our latest Early Warning Project country assessment, focusing on plausible scenarios that could lead to mass atrocities in Mali. This post discusses how we selected Mali as a country of focus and provides a preliminary update on the results of our research.