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Early Warning Comparison Survey: Methodological Reflections
June 21, 2022
For the ninth year in a row, the Early Warning Project ran a comparison survey in December to solicit wisdom-of-the-crowd opinions on countries' relative risks for new mass killing. Due to less participation this year, we take the opportunity to reflect on two aspects of the survey methodology.
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Rising Mass Atrocity Risks in India
March 30, 2022
India ranks second in the Early Warning Project’s Statistical Risk Assessment for 2021-22, marking its highest risk and rank to date. For the last five years, India has ranked in the top 15 highest-risk countries. In this interview, human rights attorney and law professor Waris Husain discusses the country’s mass atrocity risks. He describes potential scenarios, drivers, dynamics, and recommendations for the international community.
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Early Warning: Risks for Violence Against Civilians in Chad
January 21, 2022
Chad’s risk increased significantly in this year’s Early Warning Project Statistical Risk Assessment, from 23rd in 2020–21 to tenth in 2021–22. In this interview, researcher and journalist Jérôme Tubiana discusses the risks for future violence against civilians in Chad. He describes potential conflict scenarios, drivers, dynamics, and recommendations for the international community.
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Comparison Survey Launch: Which countries are most likely to experience new mass killing in 2022?
December 1, 2021
To help the Simon-Skjodt Center’s Early Warning Project forecast atrocity risk in 2022 and learn more about the “wisdom of the crowd,” please participate in our annual comparison survey.
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Countries at Risk for Mass Killing 2021–22: New Early Warning Report
November 29, 2021
Pakistan, India, and Yemen top the list of countries at risk for new mass killing in 2021 or 2022, according to the Early Warning Project’s latest annual Statistical Risk Assessment.
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Democratic Republic of Congo: Rising Concern about the Banyamulenge’s Situation
July 22, 2021
In this interview, Delphin Rukumbuzi Ntanyoma, a PhD candidate and expert on Eastern Congo, discusses ongoing violence and risk of future mass atrocities against the Banyamulenge ethnic group in the Democratic Republic of Congo. He describes conflict drivers, high-risk areas meriting additional attention, and concludes with recommendations for policymakers focused on atrocity prevention.
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Local Populations at Risk of Violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo
July 19, 2021
In this interview, Congolese peace, justice, and genocide scholar Dr. Naupess K. Kibiswa answers questions about drivers of violent conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Congolese govermment's response, details potential triggers of new violence, and concludes with recommendations for to the US government on how to help prevent mass atrocities.
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State of the World: Mass Killing in 2020
June 17, 2021
The Early Warning Project uses patterns from past instances of mass killing to forecast when and where new mass killing episodes are most likely to happen in the future. Each year we update our list of countries experiencing state- and nonstate-led mass killing. The following report compiles our determinations for ongoing mass killings in 2020.
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Launching New Early Warning Risk List
March 12, 2021
In late February, the Early Warning Project launched its latest early warning risk list, identifying Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo as most likely to experience a new mass killing in 2020 or 2021.
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Comparison Survey Launch: Which countries are most likely to experience new mass killing in 2021?
December 1, 2020
To help the Simon-Skjodt Center’s Early Warning Project forecast atrocity risk in 2021, please participate in our annual pairwise comparison survey, an innovative opinion aggregation method, which presents countries head-to-head and asks respondents to choose which is more likely to experience a new mass killing in the new year. The survey will run for one month, until December 31, 2020.
