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Increasing Instability and Mass Atrocity Risks in Chad
March 30, 2023
Rising political instability in Chad since the April 2021 death of the country’s longtime president has sparked concern of increasing mass atrocity risks. This instability risks worsening underlying and interrelated dynamics across the country. Urgent action is needed to respond to these risks.
Urgent Action Needed: Hazaras in Afghanistan Under Attack
August 10, 2022
Since the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan in August 2021, the risk of mass atrocities has increased for vulnerable groups, including ethnic and religious minorities. The Hazara community is experiencing increasing and widespread attacks by ISIS-KP and the Taliban alongside a history of persecution, necessitating an immediate response by the US and other governments.
Genocide Denial, Rising Tensions, and Political Crisis in Bosnia
February 18, 2022
Twenty-six years after the end of the Bosnian war, the country could be on the brink of disintegration, while continued genocide denial, recent hate incidents, and divisive nationalism raise concerns about conflict escalation and civilian targeting.
Early Warning: Risks for Violence Against Civilians in Chad
January 21, 2022
Chad’s risk increased significantly in this year’s Early Warning Project Statistical Risk Assessment, from 23rd in 2020–21 to tenth in 2021–22. In this interview, researcher and journalist Jérôme Tubiana discusses the risks for future violence against civilians in Chad. He describes potential conflict scenarios, drivers, dynamics, and recommendations for the international community.
Women and Hazara in Afghanistan Face Heightened Risk of Mass Atrocities After Taliban Takeover
September 13, 2021
While the Taliban takeover threatens civilians across Afghanistan, the country’s women and girls and Hazara populations are at particular risk of mass atrocities. Even prior to the Taliban’s seizing control of the country, the Early Warning Project’s Statistical Risk Assessment ranked Afghanistan second in the world for the risk of a new onset of mass killing of civilians in 2020-21.
Climate Change, Resource Scarcity, and Group-Targeted Violence in Nigeria
September 2, 2021
The ongoing conflict between farming and herding populations in Nigeria exemplifies how climate change can intensify conflict between communities and place certain populations at increased risk of mass atrocities. Nigeria is pioneering a new initiative to change how it raises animals for food and other products. If successful, this system could serve as a model for other countries also threatened by farmer-herder violence related to climate change.
Democratic Republic of Congo: Rising Concern about the Banyamulenge’s Situation
July 22, 2021
In this interview, Delphin Rukumbuzi Ntanyoma, a PhD candidate and expert on Eastern Congo, discusses ongoing violence and risk of future mass atrocities against the Banyamulenge ethnic group in the Democratic Republic of Congo. He describes conflict drivers, high-risk areas meriting additional attention, and concludes with recommendations for policymakers focused on atrocity prevention.
Local Populations at Risk of Violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo
July 19, 2021
In this interview, Congolese peace, justice, and genocide scholar Dr. Naupess K. Kibiswa answers questions about drivers of violent conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Congolese govermment's response, details potential triggers of new violence, and concludes with recommendations for to the US government on how to help prevent mass atrocities.
Social, political, and economic tensions raise risk of violence in the Congo
July 16, 2021
In this interview, Sylvain Saluseke, a Congolese pro-democracy activist, discusses ongoing violence and risk of future mass atrocities in the Democratic Republic of Congo. He describes conflict drivers, high-risk areas meriting additional attention, and concludes with recommendations for policymakers focused on atrocity prevention.
State of the World: Mass Killing in 2020
June 17, 2021
The Early Warning Project uses patterns from past instances of mass killing to forecast when and where new mass killing episodes are most likely to happen in the future. Each year we update our list of countries experiencing state- and nonstate-led mass killing. The following report compiles our determinations for ongoing mass killings in 2020.