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November 29, 2017
Bangladesh has made considerable social and economic progress in recent years, but sharp divisions between major political parties, past violence around the 2014 election, increased authoritarianism, impunity for security forces, localized patronage politics, and exceptionally high stakes for the coming election indicate a threat of violence that could reach a greater scale than in the past.
November 15, 2017
The recent coup in Zimbabwe indicates an increase in the country's risk of mass killing, according to the Good Judgment Open opinion pool run by the Early Warning Project of the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide and Dartmouth College’s Dickey Center for International Understanding.
October 16, 2017
In recent months, international officials and humanitarian groups have begun to sound the alarm about resurgent violence and the risk of further mass atrocities in the Central African Republic.
September 25, 2017
In April 2017 the Early Warning Project launched a new set of questions through a public opinion pool to crowdsource questions on atrocity risk around the world. Since then, 317 participants have cast 7025 forecasts in response to questions asking about mass killing risk in 16 countries that the project has identified as high risk. The Good Judgment Project, an online forecasting platform, aggregates the individual forecasts from both experts and amateur volunteers to alert EWP of evolving risk of large-scale violence against civilians.
September 19, 2017
In April 2017 the Early Warning Project launched a new set of questions through a public opinion pool to crowdsource questions on atrocity risk around the world. Since then, 317 participants have cast 7,025 forecasts in response to questions asking about mass killing risk in 16 countries that the project has identified as high risk.
July 27, 2017
The Simon-Skjodt Center for Prevention of Genocide recently concluded the field research portion of our latest Early Warning Project country assessment, focusing on plausible scenarios that could lead to mass atrocities in Mali. This post discusses how we selected Mali as a country of focus and provides a preliminary update on the results of our research.
March 22, 2017
The Early Warning Project has announced a new research fellowship focused on increasing knowledge of early warning for mass atrocities in Mali.
December 1, 2016
Which countries in the world are most likely to see the start of new episodes of state-led mass killing in 2017?
To help us answer this question, we’d like you to vote in our fourth annual wiki survey. Participation can take as little or as much time as you like, and even just a few minutes of your time will improve our results.
November 12, 2015
Mass atrocities occur rarely, and they are hard to predict. So aren’t risk assessments in the form of predicted probabilities, like the ones the Early Warning Project produces, a little too precise? When we ask the participants in our opinion pool to assign a number to their beliefs about the likelihood that various events will happen, are we really adding useful information, or are we putting too fine a point on things?
May 2, 2015
In April 26, Pierre Nkurunziza, the president of Burundi since 2005, announced he would run for a third term in upcoming elections, prompting protests and violence in Bujumbura, the country’s capital. Civil society actors and opposition advocates argue that Nkurunziza and his political party, the National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), have violated the terms of the 2005 Arusha Accords, which ended a decades-long civil war that saw over 300,000 civilian deaths.