Sudan
Warning Signs
An entrenched ruling elite
Since independence in 1956, Sudan’s ruling class has justified its power with an ideology that favors the Arabic-speaking and Arabized elite in the capital Khartoum over populations from the nation's more culturally, religiously, and linguistically diverse regions. While often described as a country split along a north-south axis, which contains some truth, the concentration of power and wealth is divided between the center and peripheries.
War between the north and south (1955 – 1972)
From 1924-1956, the British had treated the north and south as two separate entities. The first Sudanese civil war (1955-1972) erupted on the eve of independence, prompted by angry southerners who had been promised and then denied regional autonomy. The fighting resulted in the death of half a million people, mostly civilians, and forced hundreds of thousands to flee from their homes. In 1972, the Addis Ababa Agreement negotiated peace between the Southern Sudan Liberation Movement and Khartoum. The peace deal included power-sharing agreements, security guarantees, and political and economic autonomy for the South.
A military coup and intensified fighting (1989 – 2005)
In an attempt to quiet critics in the north and consolidate his power, Sudanese President Jaafar al-Nimieri introduced new legal measures in 1983 that abolished southern governing autonomy. Nimieri returned power to Khartoum, declared Arabic the official language, and imposed Sharia law over the entire country. In response, southerners mobilized around the Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA), led by Dr. John Garang. Rather than fight for southern independence, the SPLA posited that Sudan needed to be transformed into a multi-racial, multi-lingual, multi-religious, and multi-ethnic state.
An elected government failed to resolve the conflict, leading to a military coup, as Islamists gained the upper hand. On June 30, 1989, Brigadier General Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir came to power in a military coup at the head of a National Islamist Front (NIF) government. The NIF intensified the war with the South.
Armed conflict in the west (2003 – present)
When the western region of Darfur experienced increasingly violent internal disputes over access to land and power in the 1990s, the Sudanese government responded by rewarding and arming local leaders who shared its ideology. Just as a negotiated agreement ended the war between the north and south, fighting began in Darfur when men from the Fur, Zaghawa, and Masalit ethnic groups created the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) and attacked a government airfield on April 25, 2003. Another rebel group, the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), joined the fight against the Sudanese government armed forces.
In response to the April 2003 rebel attack, the Sudanese government began recruiting local militias and transforming them into semi-regularized forces known as the Janjaweed. These militias had personal interests in gaining access to land inhabited by civilians from the same groups as the rebels: Fur, Zaghawa, and Masalit.