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Makpandu Refugee Camp, Southern Sudan Living at the geographic intersection of the region’s most complex and violent realities, thousands of Congolese refugees have recently fled into southern Sudan’s Western Equatoria… More»
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Overview: Bosnia
In 1991, Yugoslavia's republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina (Bosnia) had a population of 4 million, composed of three main ethnic groups: Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim, 44%), Serb (31%), and Croat (17%), as well as Yugoslav (8%).
On April 5, 1992, the government of Bosnia declared its independence from Yugoslavia. Immediately, Bosnian Serb leaders launched a war to create a separate state. They targeted Bosniak and Croatian civilians in areas under their control, in what has become known as "ethnic cleansing."
During the conflict (1992-95), an estimated 100,000 people were killed; 80% of the civilians killed were Bosniaks. In July 1995, Bosnian Serb forces killed as many as 8,000 Bosniaks from Srebrenica. It was the largest massacre in Europe since the Holocaust.
Current Situation
Director of National Intelligence Emphasizes Risk in Southern Sudan and Concern for Bosnia
Addressing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday, Dennis Blair, the Director of National Intelligence, emphasized — above all other parallel risks — the potential for mass killing or genocide in South Sudan. His analysis came as part of the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
Blair discussed the definition, triggers, strategies, and recent cases of mass killing:
The mass killing of civilians — defined as the deliberate killing of at least 1,000 unarmed civilians of a particular political identity by state or state-sponsored actors in a single event or over a sustained period — is a persistent feature of the global landscape. Within the past three years, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Sudan all suffered mass killing episodes through violence, starvation, or deaths in prison camps. Sri Lanka may also have experienced a mass killing last spring: roughly 7,000 civilians were killed during Colombo’s military victory over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), according to UN estimates.
The risk for mass killing is driven by the presence of ongoing internal conflict or regime crises, combined with relatively poor socioeconomic conditions, international isolation, recent protest activity, discriminatory policies, or frequent leadership turnover. In such contexts, mass killings are typically deliberate strategies by new or threatened elites to assert state or rebel authority, to clear territory of insurgents, or to deter populations from supporting rebel or antigovernment movements.
Looking ahead over the next five years, a number of countries in Africa and Asia are at significant risk for a new outbreak of mass killing. All of the countries at significant risk have or are at high risk for experiencing internal conflicts or regime crises and exhibit one or more of the additional factors for mass killing. Among these countries, a new mass killing or genocide is most likely to occur in Southern Sudan.
Blair’s statement fulfilled a recommendation presented in the final report of the Genocide Prevention Task Force, which the Museum convened with the U.S. Institute of Peace and The American Academy of Diplomacy. The report offered a blueprint for improving U.S. government response to threats of genocide and mass atrocities and included the following recommendation: “The director of national intelligence should initiate the preparation of a National Intelligence Estimate on worldwide risk of genocide and mass atrocities.”
Blair’s focus on the risk for mass killing or genocide in southern Sudan reflects growing international concern for Sudan as the nation approaches presidential elections in April and the 2011 referendum for southern independence.
Blair also emphasized to the Senate Committee the principal challenges to stability in the Balkans and highlighted several worrying signs in Bosnia:
I remain concerned about Bosnia’s future stability. While neither widespread violence nor a formal break-up of the state appears imminent, ethnic agendas still dominate the political process and reforms have stalled because of wrangling among the three main ethnic groups. The sides failed to agree on legal changes proposed jointly by the EU and the US at the end of 2009, undercutting efforts to strengthen the central government so that it is capable of taking the country into NATO and the EU. Bosnian Serb leaders seek to reverse some reforms, warn of legal challenges to the authority of the international community, and assert their right to eventually hold a referendum on secession, all of which is contributing to growing interethnic tensions. This dynamic appears likely to continue, as Bosnia’s leaders will harden their positions to appeal to their nationalist constituents ahead of elections this fall.
Diplomats Search for Political Progress
Talks convened today in Bosnia, bringing the U.S., EU, and Bosnian politicians together to discuss ways of breaking the political deadlock that continues to trouble the country. Fourteen years after the brutal conflict that brought its independence, Bosnia faces deep political divisions internally between Republika Srpska and the Muslim-Croat Federation, the nation’s two governing entities that were established by the 1995 Dayton peace accords. Ratcheting up the ethnocentric rhetoric, Bosnian Serb Prime Minister Milorad Dodik has repeatedly threatened to call for a referendum on succession.
Although the talks are not expected to make significant progress, the hope is that they will improve the nation’s chances for eventual EU and NATO membership. With Croatia and Macedonia already candidate countries to the EU and applications from Albania and Montenegro under consideration, international leaders hope to ensure that Bosnia is not left behind as the rest of the region achieves integration.
Bosnia remains under international protectorate, despite long-standing plans to close the Office of the High Representative, which retains power over political decisions in the country. Expected to meet in mid-November to discuss the end of this protectorate status, the international community will be considering Bosnia’s success at implementing constitutional reform. Currently, the Bosnian government includes three presidents, 13 prime ministers, and 180 ministers.
Anniversary of the Genocide at Srebrenica
July 11 marks the anniversary of the start of the 1995 genocide at Srebrenica. On this day, newly identified remains are reburied at the Srebrenica Potocari Memorial and Cemetary.
Faced with the seemingly impossible task to locate, recover, and identify so many missing people, the International Commission of Missing Persons (ICMP) has made steady progress, helping to identify 12,518 individuals in Bosnia, roughly half of whom are Srebrenica victims. Just this past May, forensic experts investigated a newly-discovered mass grave in Bosnia where they found 12 Srebrenica victims. About 70 mass graves around Srebrenica have been found since the war.
High Unemployment and Unresolved Political Issues
Since the Bosnian war ended in November 1995 with the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement, Bosnia has been under international protectorate. The Office of the High Representative, an ad hoc international institution responsible for overseeing implementation of civilian aspects of the Dayton accord, has significant authority over the decisions made by Bosnian politicians. Additionally, NATO and then EU-led international forces were deployed as peacekeepers; elections were overseen by the Organizations for Security and Cooperation in Europe; and millions of international aid has gone to rebuilding and reforming the state.
This is about to change. The mandate and office of the High Representative is scheduled to close on June 30, 2009, at which point a special European representative will be the main international presence. Many core political issues remain unresolved. The final status of the Brcko District, a city in northern Bosnia that has a special status in neither the Serb Republic nor the Bosnian Federation, is unsettled. Nationalist political parties remain strong. Talk of changing the constitution established at Dayton to build a stronger federal state, as envisioned by leading Bosniak politicians, has alienated Serbian politicians who want to maintain powers as separate entities.
Life for ordinary civilians has improved in terms of stability and security, but the economic situation is extremely difficult. It is estimated that the unemployment rate is 45%.
The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia is currently conducting several high-level trials regarding crimes committed at Srebrenica, in Kosovo, and during the Croatian “Operation Storm,” among other cases. The case against leading Bosnian Serb politician, Radovan Karadzic, charged with genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes, is in the pre-trial stage. Remaining at large is General Ratko Mladic, the Bosnian Serb military leader. The Tribunal is scheduled to finish first-instance trials by 2010 and close its Appeals Court by 2011.
